There is a flurry of activity among intelligence organizations and defence think-tanks in key South Asian capitals to uncover those behind the attack on the Sri Lanka cricketers in Lahore, Pakistan, two days ago, with increasing indicators that that the plot may have been to create a major diplomatic crisis involving Sri Lanka, India and Pakistan.

Those making sifting through considerable background evidence and current intelligence material limit their focus to just one group. The attack had the possibility of creating a major diplomatic crisis in the entire region bringing leading to a crisis in relations among Sri Lanka, India and Pakistan – all of them seriously affected by terrorism.

The emerging suspicions about Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT), the group blamed by India for the attacks on Mumbai, being responsible for this attack, have led to serious considerations on the possibility of an LTTE link, in this attack, in view of the known connections the LTTE has with this group.

These links date as back to 1992, when Kittu, a prominent strategist of the LTTE at the time, was known to have been negotiating arms purchases for the LTTE in Peshawar, which was uncovered by intelligence sources. Subsequent to this, in 1993, Indian intelligence is credited with identifying the vessel in which Kittu was transporting the weapons for the LTTE, and had the ship destroyed at sea, killing Kittu, too.

There had also been much speculation that the LTTE may have had external help in firing missiles that brought down two Avro aircraft near Palali airbase in April 1995, killing a large number of civilians. It was believed at the time that the LTTE may have used mercenaries with links to Peshawar or Afghanistan, to fire the missiles which hit the aircraft, links which have remained till today.

Intelligence sources are aware that the continued LTTE’s links with LeT, with many good and substantiated reports of the Sri Lankan terrorist group and LeT exchanging terrorist expertise, LeT and supplying arms to the LTTE, and both carrying out joint training.

The heightened interest about the LTTE’s hand in the attack on the Sri Lanka cricketers comes from the aspects of planning, and the resources that were available to the attackers.

The information that the attackers had planned to take the Sri Lankan players hostage, is also being viewed by intelligence sources in South Asian capitals, in the context of the LTTE’s current position of near defeat, and the search for a bargaining tool for its call for a ceasefire.

Some Indian analysts are of the view that had the attackers been successful and taken all or any of the Sri Lankan players hostage, and used them for bargaining with Sri Lanka, or either India or Pakistan or both, it would have led to a major diplomatic crisis in the region.

There is also the view that what the US State Department spokesman said in condemning the attack, that it was not only an attack on innocent civilians, “but also on the positive relations that Pakistan and Sri Lanka are trying to enjoy. This is not just an attack on individuals; this is an attack on peaceful, normal relations.,” comes very close to the suspicions of well informed intelligence sources the LTTE may have been trying to seek revenge for the strong support that Pakistan has given to Sri Lanka in its fight against terror. This high level of support has gone on fro 1999, and has contributed much to the LTTE’s current position of being on the brink of defeat.